A race among 4 countries


Eurovision_Copenhagen2In 2003, Turkey won Eurovision by only 2 points to Belgium, with Russia as second runner up only 1 point behind Belgium. Since then the winner has been decided long before the last jury every year. This year could be different.

I have earlier predicted 10 possible winners this year, and in the first semi final, another strong contender for the trophy emerged: The Netherlands, who has been looked upon as too slow and dull for the top before this week, had this year’s best stage performance. Not a glamorous, spectacular show with running men in hamster wheels or men on a trampoline. Not confetti, fireworks or bearded women. But a down-to-earth, honest song presentation with two spectacular musicians.

Like I indicated earlier this week, Denmark should have been looked upon as a favourite, due to their favourable starting position at 23. To challenge them, I think other favourites should be placed among the last five songs to be able to neutralize their strong hold. Now, both the United Kingdom and The Netherlands has been placed in that part of the final. The Netherlands got a favourable position of 24, and the United Kingdom will wrap up the show at 26th.

Making Denmark less of an outstanding entry in the last part of the final, it also opens up for winning songs in the rest of the heat.

But most of the songs which were considered possible winners were all depending on good starting position to reach their full potential. I still believe a country like Greece will end top-5. And several of the ones I mentioned earlier in the week will most likely end top-10. But after they have been placed in worse starting positions, they will have problems with beating the three countries at the end of the show. They wont be able to fight for the trophy. All except for one. Sweden.

Swedish Sanna Nielsen is this year’s most complete artist. Her looks, voice and self confidence all make her stand out on TV, reminding more of Celine Dion than an average Eurovision artist. And we all know from where Celine Dion first got a reputation in Europe. Due to her extreme professional appearance, Sanna Nielsen might be able to fight in the top, although the song is rather weak.

The United Kingdom’s pop anthem “Children of the Universe” is the perfect song to finish the contest, although it’s not considered the most favourable starting position. Songs starting second to last statistically get the most points from televote, and the last starting position a little less. But still, as 26th among 26 countries, the UK will be closer to it’s sixth victory than ever before.

So then the 10 possible winning candidates has been narrowed down to 4: United Kingdom, Denmark, The Netherlands and Sweden. But none of these stand out in the same way that the winners have done in the recent years. This could indicate that the points will spread out more evenly, and there will not be a runaway victory. I expect it to be the closest and most exciting voting for 11 years. Happy Eurovision!